Executive Summary

Q1 2024 delivered strong operations despite the Francis Scott Key Bridge closure: GAAP net income $101.9M, diluted EPS $3.39, adjusted EBITDA $181.8M, total revenue and other income $565.0M, CFO $77.5M, FCF $41.3M .
Export pivot continued: 65% of recurring revenue from export markets; ~60% of volumes exported, with 508k tons into crossover met; CMT throughput 4.5Mt with adjusted EBITDA $16.8M; alternate Virginia port secured at ~$10/ton extra cost .
2024 guidance updated: PAMC sales cut to 24–26Mt (was 25–27Mt); PAMC cash cost raised to $37.50–$39.50/ton; pricing held at $62.50–$66.50/ton; Itmann sales raised to 700–900kt and cost guidance suspended; CapEx lowered to $155–$180M (was $175–$200M) .
Capital returns remained aggressive: 89% of Q1 FCF deployed to buybacks (440k shares at ~$84/share), reflecting management’s view that repurchases are the highest-return use of capital amid contracted cash flow visibility .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Export mix and commercial flexibility: 65% of recurring revenue from exports; ~60% of volumes exported, including 508k crossover met tons, with growing Southeast Asia demand .
Operational resilience at CMT: Despite losing five loading days and channel closure, Q1 throughput reached 4.5Mt; CMT adjusted EBITDA $16.8M; alternative Virginia port enabled ~50% of planned export volumes .
Shareholder returns: 89% of Q1 FCF used for buybacks; cumulative 6.1M shares retired since 2022 (~18% float) .
Quote: “We continue to believe that share buybacks are the best use of our capital.” – CEO James Brock .

What Went Wrong

Cost inflation and longwall timing: PAMC cash cost rose to $40.29/ton (Q1’23: $33.61/ton) as three longwall moves and inflation pressured unit costs; average cash margin per ton fell to $28.04 (Q1’23: $50.71) .
Pricing headwinds vs prior year: Average coal revenue per ton declined to $68.33 (Q1’23: $84.32) amid lower commodity prices and mix effects .
Itmann constraints: Ongoing equipment delays, high turnover, and mains development limited production; management suspended Itmann cash cost guidance for 2024 .

Financial Results

Headline Results (Q1 2024)

Metric	Q1 2024
Total Revenue and Other Income ($USD Millions)	$565.0
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)	$101.9
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$3.39
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$181.8
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)	$77.5
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)	$41.3

Key KPIs and Pricing

KPI	Q3 2023	Q4 2023	Q1 2024
PAMC Coal Sales (Million Tons)	6.1	6.8	6.1
PAMC Average Coal Revenue per Ton ($/ton)	$70.34	$74.54	$68.33
PAMC Average Cash Cost per Ton ($/ton)	$38.36	$36.28	$40.29
PAMC Avg Cash Margin per Ton ($/ton)	$31.98	—	$28.04
CMT Throughput (Million Tons)	4.3	4.7	4.5
CMT Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$14.9	—	$16.8
Export Revenue Share (%)	—	—	65%
Export Volume Share (%)	60% (YTD)	~60% in Q4	~60%

Notes: “—” indicates not disclosed in cited document for the quarter.

Segment Breakdown (Q1 2024)

Segment	Coal Revenue ($USD Thousands)	Terminal Revenue ($USD Thousands)	Freight Revenue ($USD Thousands)	Other Revenue ($USD Thousands)	Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Thousands)
PAMC	$416,187	—	$66,900	—	$169,333
CONSOL Marine Terminal	—	$24,528	—	—	$16,840
Other, Corporate & Eliminations	$31,740	—	$2,942	$4,392	$(4,420)
Consolidated	$447,927	$24,528	$69,842	$4,392	$181,753

Market Mix (Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023)

Metric	Q1 2023	Q1 2024
Consolidated Coal Revenue ($USD Millions)	$583	$448
Terminal Revenue ($USD Millions)	$27	$25
Freight Revenue ($USD Millions)	$68	$70
Coal Revenue by End-Markets ($USD Millions)	Power $300; Industrial $192; Met $91	Power $226; Industrial $153; Met $69

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
PAMC Sales Volume (Million Tons)	FY 2024	25–27	24–26	Lowered
PAMC Avg Coal Revenue per Ton ($/ton)	FY 2024	$62.50–$66.50	$62.50–$66.50	Maintained
PAMC Avg Cash Cost per Ton ($/ton)	FY 2024	$36.50–$38.50	$37.50–$39.50	Raised
Itmann Sales Volume (000 tons)	FY 2024	600–800	700–900	Raised
Itmann Avg Cash Cost per Ton ($/ton)	FY 2024	$120–$140	Suspended	Suspended
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)	FY 2024	$175–$200	$155–$180	Lowered

Drivers: Port of Baltimore closure constrained exports; alternate port increased shipping costs; pricing maintained due to improved API2 benchmarks; fixed cost distribution lower in April/May; CapEx reduced to mitigate bridge impact .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2023)	Previous Mentions (Q4 2023)	Current Period (Q1 2024)	Trend
AI/data center power demand	Noted rising electricity demand; export pivot to industrial/met	PJM load growth ~2.5% p.a.; data centers/EVs raising demand	AI/servers could consume ~6% US power by 2026; utilities delaying coal retirements; multi-year fixed domestic deal (2026–2028, 950k tons)	Strengthening domestic power demand narrative
Supply chain/logistics	Export vessel timing raised inventory; rail performance ok	CMT record throughput 2023; flexibility emphasized	FSK Bridge collapse; alternative Virginia port; ~50% planned exports diverted; $10/ton extra transport cost	Temporary constraint; mitigated
Export mix & pricing (API2)	71% recurring revenue export YTD; new SE Asia markets	60% export in Q4; pricing guided off API2 $105; floors limit downside	65% recurring revenue from exports; sensitivity ~$0.12/ton per $1 API2; pricing mid-$60s	Sustained export focus
Itmann (met) execution	Ramp progressing; labor/equipment challenges; 357k YTD sales	571k tons contracted FY24; cost $120–$140 guided	Sales guidance raised; cost guidance suspended; ~40–45% purchased coal mix; equipment delays and turnover persist	Mixed progress; cautious near term
Regulatory/legal	—	Capital allocation/buybacks emphasis	Clean Power Plan concern; litigation expected; grid reliability risk	Heightened regulatory risk framing

Management Commentary

“CONSOL Energy finished the first quarter with a strong operational performance and produced 6.5 million tons from the Pennsylvania Mining Complex… We continued our exports shift and 65% of our Q1 ’24 total recurring revenues… derived from sales into the export market.” – CEO James Brock .
“We generated net income of $102 million or $3.39 per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA of $182 million… Free cash flow was impacted negatively by approximately $81 million of working capital changes.” – President & CFO Mitesh Thakkar .
“We have successfully developed alternative strategies… divert… export shipments to an alternative port in Virginia… ~50% of our planned export volumes.” – CEO James Brock .
“We deployed approximately 89% of the free cash flow generated during the first quarter towards repurchasing shares… 440,000 shares at a weighted average price of approximately $84.” – CEO James Brock .

Q&A Highlights

Volumes/Cash Flow Outlook: ~1.4Mt shipped in April; ~5Mt Q2 volumes if Baltimore reopens end-May; April FCF ~$20M; May lighter, June recovery .
Pricing/Mix: Mid-$60s pricing assumed on ~$110 API2; alternate Norfolk routing adds ~$10/ton and ~$$14M opportunity cost at 1.4Mt/month .
Sensitivity: 2024 API2 sensitivity ~$0.12/ton per $1; 2025 ~$0.14/ton; downside limited by floors; upside leveraged .
Contingency Planning: If Baltimore reopening delayed, alternative capacity (600–800kt/month) continues through June; CMT maintenance pulled forward to accelerate restart .
Itmann Execution: Equipment rebuilds expected by late June/early July; labor and purchased coal mix drive variability; long-term cost target aligned with Central App peers once ramped .
Regulatory Tone: Clean Power Plan viewed as grid risk; management expects litigation and emphasizes reliability concerns .

Estimates Context

S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus estimates for Q1 2024 were unavailable due to missing CIQ mapping for CEIX; as a result, explicit “beat/miss” vs EPS, revenue, and EBITDA consensus cannot be provided. Analysts may adjust FY24 estimates for lower PAMC volumes, higher cash costs, and reduced CapEx, partially offset by maintained pricing guidance and CMT operations resuming post-May .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Short-term: Expect constrained Q2 export volumes until full Baltimore access; watch the pace of CMT restart and potential catch-up shipments in June/July; transportation cost headwinds (~$10/ton via Norfolk) compress margins near term .
Pricing durability: Maintained FY24 pricing ($62.50–$66.50/ton) despite logistics costs reflects improved API2; floors/ceilings limit downside; upside leverage to API2 remains .
Cost normalization path: PAMC cash costs raised for FY24 ($37.50–$39.50/ton); costs should ease as longwall moves subside and CMT efficiency returns; monitor Q3 longwall schedule .
Itmann optionality: Sales guidance increased to 700–900kt with suspended cost guidance; execution hinges on equipment delivery and labor stabilization; higher export met realizations support mix .
Capital allocation: Aggressive buybacks persist (89% of Q1 FCF), enabled by net cash position and strong liquidity ($478M end-Q1; $502M end-April); expect continued repurchases as contracted book underpins cash flows .
Demand catalysts: AI/data center and industrial load growth underpin domestic utility demand; emerging markets (SEA, India) sustain export industrial and crossover met opportunities .
Regulatory watch: Clean Power Plan outcomes and domestic plant retirement schedules are key risks to long-term domestic demand narrative .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

Working capital impacted FCF by ~$81M in Q1 (longwall timing, ~450kt end-of-quarter inventory due to port closure) .
Contract book: PAMC contracted 22.9Mt in 2024 and 13.5Mt in 2025; Itmann FY24 contracted 717kt .
Q1 consolidated segment results: see detailed segment revenue and adjusted EBITDA table above .
Q1 market mix: coal revenue by end-use (power/industrial/met) vs Q1 2023 shows lower domestic power and met revenue YoY consistent with export pivot and pricing shifts .

Citations: .

CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX)·Q1 2024 Earnings Summary